The holiday season is on us, which means that most traders enjoy their
holidays and that liquidity is slowly depleting. As I pointed out two
days ago, this means that any part of the data can lead to strong
one-way action. There are still a set of catalysts on the economic
calendar for this week, so let’s take a look at reports that may shake
markets in the next few days.
Hollers of central banks
The Reserve Bank of Australia and Bank of Japan will participate in the
tender season when they participate in the minutes of the monetary
policy meeting this week.
The Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) will print minutes of the monetary
policy meeting on Tuesday at 12:30 GMT. I remember that the Reserve Bank
of Australia left interest rates at 4.75% in December, so the report is
likely to show optimism for the economy in the near term as concerns
about the euro zone’s debt problems continue.
At the same time, the Bank of Japan will take the headlines on Tuesday
when the interest rate decision is made and a press conference is held
on the same day. Many expect the Bank of Japan to keep interest rates at
a low of 0.1% as the yen continues to rise and concerns about global
debt mount in its markets.
In the interest rate decision last month, the BoJ detailed its plans to
pump money into the economy. We heard about his plans to buy government
bonds, exchange traded funds and the like. Will she increase her efforts
this month, or does she just want the markets to be a happy birthday?
Stick around to see!
GDP: Economic Report Cards
New Zealand’s quarterly GDP
On Wednesday, New Zealand is scheduled to post third-quarter GDP, which,
according to New Zealand Reserve Bank Governor Alan Pollard, should
show growth of 0.8% quarter-on-quarter. This is a bold prediction given
that the second quarter grew 0.2%, well below the 0.9% predicted by the
This version is particularly interesting to catch because it comes with great negative risk.
First, in July and August, retail sales sales were well below
expectations. In addition, New Zealand’s trade deficit widened rapidly
in the third quarter and did not match any of the expected optimistic
figures. As you know, private consumption and net exports are
significant contributors to GDP, so it is normal to expect GDP to fall
just as it did.
However, be sure to listen to at 9:45 pm GMT on Wednesday. You do not want to miss a huge score bag, right? I think so!
Monthly GDP in Canada
On Thursday, at 1:30 pm GMT, Canada will publish its monthly GDP figures
before the world begins to celebrate holidays. In the last four
reports, we have seen GDP growth in Canada and its decline from month to
month. More recently, it was down 0.1% in September.
What will it be this time? Remember that weak demand from the US, its
largest trading partner, has been a pain in Canada’s export-oriented
economy, so it’s hard to imagine a strong GDP figure.
It should be noted, however, that since the publication of this report
on a monthly basis, it tends to have a lighter effect than quarterly GDP
reports. However, you may be interested in Canadian retail sales and
consumer price index data as well.
At 12:00 GMT on Tuesday, we will see whether the inflation rate has
risen from last month by 0.4% on a monthly basis. The consumer price
index has been heading higher since August. The question is whether he
can sustain this momentum and give BOC another reason to raise interest
We’ll also get retail sales data when clicked on Tuesday. If the month
of October is able to exceed the September high of 0.6%, the Canadian
dollar may find a reason to rise. Do not forget that the Retail Sales
report is the primary measure of consumer spending, which contributes to
GDP, so this release may give us just a clue as to how the GDP report
will appear the next day.
Data from Good Uncle Uncle Sam
You know how US economic reports tend to shake the markets so that they
stay better on your toes when Uncle Sam releases his housing data and
durable goods orders this week.
Housing Market Reports
Let’s start with reports from the US housing market. Home sales reports
are usually key indicators of economic activity because home buying is
often followed by more purchases. The house is not a house without
furniture, appliances and a good refrigerator, right?
That’s why you need to stay tuned to the existing home sales report on
Wednesday at 3:00 pm GMT and the new home sales report on Thursday at
3:00 pm GMT. The reports are expected to generate optimistic reports as
existing home sales are expected to rise from 4.43 million in November
to 4.73 million in December, while new home sales may rise from 283,000
to 300,000 during the month.
Durable Goods Orders
Another important group of reports from the US are durable goods orders
and their core version, which is scheduled to be Thursday at 1:30 pm
GMT. After a 3.4% drop in October, Durable Goods is expected to record a